Vancouver Housing Outlook | Q2 2015

Luisa Hough • May 14, 2015

Yesterday, Robyn Adamache a Senior Market Analyst for Metro Vancouver with CMHC gave a presentation on the Vancouver housing market.

Although I was unable to attend in person, some of my colleagues compiled their notes and shared the information with all Xeva brokers. Special thanks to Casey Archibald for his work in bringing this together!

I figured this would be great information to share on my blog, so here goes nothing!

CMHC’s New Tool

cmhc.ca/hmiportal  This provides at a glance snapshots of local, regional, national housing data. You can compare vacancy rates in several communities and get property information broken down into provinces and cities.

On The Economy

Rates expected to stay low however they might start to edge up in 2016. Nothing drastic expected.

Low Dollar = Increased Exports, Increased Tourism & Increased Manufacturing. We are seeing Forest/Wood Products increasing with more stability returning to US build (back to 1M units/year).

2014 28k new jobs in GVA (21k part time, 7k full time) expected employment growth will continue.

BC Population Growth – 33.6k people to BC (from International)

Interprovincial growth is 10k in 2014

16,500 new households forming each year in the GVA

  • 2610 Vancouver
  • 2100 Coquitlam
  • 2760 Surrey
  • 1880 Richmond
  • 1100 Maple Ridge
  • 1320 Langley

Current Questions in the Media

There has been lots of talk recently in the media about Vancouver being taken over by foreign ownership.

Per VREB:

3% of MLS Sales to foreign Investors per Survey to Realtors of VREB (consistent STAT)

7% of MLS Sales to new immigrants

Per LANDCOR:

-25% of condo stock owned by investors (assessment sent to different address than subject property)

-11% of SFD in GVA owned by investors

-48% at UBC owned by investors

Per BT Architects

2009 – 5 to 8% of DT condos are “Dark” based on hydro study (Downtown Condos)

2011 Census: 7% condos unoccupied (City of Vancouver)

23% of Coal Harbour not occupied

Per CMHC 2014 Consumer Survey

2.3% of condos owned by foreign investors (City of Vancouver)

6% of downtown condos owned by foreign investors

Investor Confidence in Vancouver Rental Units

33% of Vancouver Investors expect their units to increase in value vs 50% in Toronto

Average GVA Condo Price: June 2008 MLS 375k to Mar 2015 390k

How do people afford to live in Vancouver You ask?…

Average Price (ALL home types) = 877k (Q1 2015 VREB)

Qualifying Income = 160k (approx)

20% of Sales 1.2M to 16.3M (VREB)

When the top 20% of the market (high end) is excluded, 80% of Sales 0M to 1.99M = Avg Price is 555k (Qualifying Income at the average = 102K)

Per Robyn Adamache, “Investor presence is not overwhelming” based on the data available from VREB, LANDCOR, CMHC and not affecting the market to the extent the media is reporting.

Housing Market Outlook

Q1 2015 = 39,901 MLS Sales

Vancouver

Townhouse Market – Strong Sellers Market (lack of product on market, limited be built)

SFD/Condo Market – Strong Balanced Market and showing currently for Q1 as Sellers (Busy Spring Market – however will not likely stay in Sellers category – likely to return to strong balanced)

Burnaby/Richmond

Townhouse/SFD – moving into sellers market

Condos – balanced

Greater Vancouver Yr over Yr Price Growth

11% SFD

5% TH

3% Condo

Summary

The housing demand is solid. Sales are expected to moderate for the remainder of 2015. Price growth will slow in 2016. With an expected 6% housing price growth in 2015 and a 3% housing price growth in 2016.

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