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Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jul 12th, 2023

Luisa Hough • Jul 12, 2023

Bank of Canada raises policy rate 25 basis points, continues quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

July 12, 2023

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Global inflation is easing, with lower energy prices and a decline in goods price inflation. However, robust demand and tight labour markets are causing persistent inflationary pressures in services. Economic growth has been stronger than expected, especially in the United States, where consumer and business spending has been surprisingly resilient. After a surge in early 2023, China’s economic growth is softening, with slowing exports and ongoing weakness in its property sector. Growth in the euro area is effectively stalled: while the service sector continues to grow, manufacturing is contracting. Global financial conditions have tightened, with bond yields up in North America and Europe as major central banks signal further interest rate increases may be needed to combat inflation.

The Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projects the global economy will grow by around 2.8% this year and 2.4% in 2024, followed by 2.7% growth in 2025.

Canada’s economy has been stronger than expected, with more momentum in demand. Consumption growth has been surprisingly strong at 5.8% in the first quarter. While the Bank expects consumer spending to slow in response to the cumulative increase in interest rates, recent retail trade and other data suggest more persistent excess demand in the economy. In addition, the housing market has seen some pickup. New construction and real estate listings are lagging demand, which is adding pressure to prices. In the labour market, there are signs of more availability of workers, but conditions remain tight, and wage growth has been around 4-5%. Strong population growth from immigration is adding both demand and supply to the economy: newcomers are helping to ease the shortage of workers while also boosting consumer spending and adding to demand for housing.

As higher interest rates continue to work their way through the economy, the Bank expects economic growth to slow, averaging around 1% through the second half of this year and the first half of next year. This implies real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. The economy will move into modest excess supply early next year before growth picks up to 2.4% in 2025.

Inflation in Canada eased to 3.4% in May, a substantial and welcome drop from its peak of 8.1% last summer. While CPI inflation has come down largely as expected so far this year, the downward momentum has come more from lower energy prices, and less from easing underlying inflation. With the large price increases of last year out of the annual data, there will be less near-term downward momentum in CPI inflation. Moreover, with three-month rates of core inflation running around 3½-4% since last September, underlying price pressures appear to be more persistent than anticipated. This is reinforced by the Bank’s business surveys, which find businesses are still increasing their prices more frequently than normal.

In the July MPR projection, CPI inflation is forecast to hover around 3% for the next year before gradually declining to 2% in the middle of 2025. This is a slower return to target than was forecast in the January and April projections. Governing Council remains concerned that progress towards the 2% target could stall, jeopardizing the return to price stability.

In light of the accumulation of evidence that excess demand and elevated core inflation are both proving more persistent, and taking into account its revised outlook for economic activity and inflation, Governing Council decided to increase the policy interest rate to 5%. Quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of monetary policy and normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet. Governing Council will continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for CPI inflation. In particular, we will be evaluating whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour are consistent with achieving the 2% inflation target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 6, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the Monetary Policy Report on October 25, 2023.

Read the July 12th, 2023 Monetary Policy Report

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The Property Matters in Mortgage Financing

By Luisa Hough • 08 May, 2024

When looking to qualify for a mortgage, typically, a lender will want to review four areas of your mortgage application: income, credit, downpayment/equity and the property itself. Assuming you have a great job, excellent credit, and sufficient money in the bank to qualify for a mortgage, if the property you’re looking to purchase isn’t in good condition, if you don't have a plan, you might get some pushback from the lender. The property matters to the lender because they hold it as collateral if you default on your mortgage. As such, you can expect that a lender will make every effort to ensure that any property they finance is in good repair. Because in the rare case that you happen to default on your mortgage, they want to know that if they have to repossess, they can sell the property quickly and recoup their money. So when assessing the property as part of any mortgage transaction, an appraisal is always required to establish value. If your mortgage requires default mortgage insurance through CMHC, Sagen (formerly Genworth), or Canada Guaranty, they’ll likely use an automated system to appraise the property where the assessment happens online. A physical appraisal is required for conventional mortgage applications, which means an appraiser will assess the property on-site. So why is this important to know? Well, because even if you have a great job, excellent credit, and money in the bank, you shouldn’t assume that you’ll be guaranteed mortgage financing. A preapproval can only take you so far. Once the mortgage process has started, the lender will always assess the property you’re looking to purchase. Understanding this ahead of time prevents misunderstandings and will bring clarity to the mortgage process. Practically applied, if you’re attempting to buy a property in a hot housing market and you go in with an offer without a condition of financing, once the appraisal is complete, if the lender isn’t satisfied with the state or value of the property, you could lose your deposit. Now, what happens if you’d like to purchase a property that isn’t in the best condition? Being proactive includes knowing that there is a purchase plus improvements program that can allow you to buy a property and include some of the cost of the renovations in the mortgage. It’s not as simple as just increasing the mortgage amount and then getting the work done, there’s a process to follow, but it’s very doable. So if you have any questions about financing your next property or potentially using a purchase plus improvements to buy a property that needs a little work, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to walk you through the process.

Getting a Mortgage While on Parental Leave

By Luisa Hough • 01 May, 2024

Chances are if the title of this article piqued your interest enough to get you here, your family is probably growing. Congratulations! If you’ve thought now is the time to find a new property to accommodate your growing family, but you’re unsure how your parental leave will impact your ability to get a mortgage, you’ve come to the right place! Here’s how it works. When you work with an independent mortgage professional, it won’t be a problem to qualify your income on a mortgage application while on parental leave, as long as you have documentation proving that you have guaranteed employment when you return to work. A word of caution, if you walk into your local bank to look for a mortgage and you disclose that you’re currently collecting parental leave, there’s a chance they’ll only allow you to use that income to qualify. This reduction in income isn’t ideal because at 55% of your previous income up to $595/week, you won’t be eligible to borrow as much, limiting your options. The advantage of working with an independent mortgage professional is choice. You have a choice between lenders and mortgage products, including lenders who use 100% of your return-to-work income. To qualify, you’ll need an employment letter from your current employer that states the following: Your employer’s name preferably on the company letterhead Your position Your initial start date to ensure you’ve passed any probationary period Your scheduled return to work date Your guaranteed salary For a lender to feel confident about your ability to cover your mortgage payments, they want to see that you have a position waiting for you once your parental leave is over. You might also be required to provide a history of your income for the past couple of years, but that is typical of mortgage financing. Whether you intend to return to work after your parental leave is over or not, once the mortgage is in place, what you decide to do is entirely up to you. Mortgage qualification requires only that you have a position waiting for you. If you have any questions about this or anything else mortgage-related, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Bridge Financing and Deposit Lending

By Luisa Hough • 24 Apr, 2024

Let’s say you have a home that you’ve outgrown; it’s time to make a move to something better suited to your needs and lifestyle. You have no desire to keep two properties, so selling your existing home and moving into something new (to you) is the best idea. Ideally, when planning out how that looks, most people want to take possession of the new house before moving out of the old one. Not only does this make moving your stuff more manageable, but it also allows you to make the new home a little more “you” by painting or completing some minor renovations before moving in. But what if you need the money from the sale of your existing home to come up with the downpayment for your next home? This situation is where bridge financing comes in. Bridge financing allows you to bridge the financial gap between the firm sale of your current home and the purchase of your new home. Bridge financing allows you to access some of the equity in your existing property and use it for the downpayment on the property you are buying. So now let’s also say that it’s a very competitive housing market where you’re looking to buy. Chances are you’ll want to make the best offer you can and include a significant deposit. If you don’t have immediate access to the cash in your bank account, but you do have equity in your home, a deposit loan allows you to make a very strong offer when negotiating the terms of purchasing your new home. Now, to secure bridge financing and/or a deposit loan, you must have a firm sale on your existing home. If you don’t have a firm sale on your home, you won’t get the bridge financing or deposit loan because there is no concrete way for a lender to calculate how much equity you have available. A firm sale is the key to securing bridge financing and a deposit loan. So if you’d like to know more about bridge financing, deposit loans, or anything else mortgage-related, please connect anytime! It would be a pleasure to work with you.